BOARD MEETING DATE: March 13, 1998 AGENDA NO. 41
PROPOSAL:
Submittal of the 1997 Air Quality Management Plan 2010 and 2020 PM10 Emission Inventories for Transportation Conformity Use
SYNOPSIS:
The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) requests the AQMD to submit the 2010 and 2020 annual average emission inventories from the 1997 AQMP to ARB, and to request ARB to forward the emission inventories to the U.S. EPA. The 2010 and 2020 emission inventories will serve as the PM10 emission budgets for 2010 and 2020, respectively. The PM10 emission budgets are needed by SCAG in order to make transportation conformity findings in 2010 and 2020 as part of SCAG’s 1998 Regional Transportation Plan.
COMMITTEE:
Mobile Source, February 27, 1998, Reviewed
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
Barry R. Wallerstein, D.Env.
Acting Executive Officer
Background
As part of the 1997 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP), PM10 air quality analysis was performed for 2010 to show the continued improvements in PM10 air quality with the implementation of the 1997 AQMP. In addition, an initial look at the year 2020 was provided in the 1997 AQMP to examine the potential impacts of the new federal air quality standards for ozone and fine particulates. The 2010 and 2020 PM10 air quality analyses were not required under state or federal law. Under federal law, the AQMD submitted emissions budgets for each milestone year to the attainment year for each nonattainment criteria pollutant. The emission budgets are used in conformity determinations by other regulatory agencies. Conformity determinations for years after the attainment year are typically based on the emission budgets for the attainment year. However, under special circumstances, emissions budgets after the attainment year may be submitted to the U.S. EPA for conformity determination use.
As part of the 1998 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) development, the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) must analyze transportation activities over a 20-year time period. The 1998 RTP includes analyses projected out to the year 2020. However, SCAG cannot make a transportation conformity determination for PM10 after 2006 using the 2006 PM10 emission budgets (2006 is the attainment year for PM10) because primary PM10 emissions from entrained road dust are projected to increase from 2006 emission levels. The increase in entrained road dust is also projected to occur in the 1997 AQMP.
Proposal
In order for SCAG to make a transportation conformity determination for the years 2010 and 2020, emission budgets for 2010 and 2020 must be submitted to the U.S. EPA. SCAG has requested that the 2010 and 2020 annual average emission inventories after implementation of the 1997 AQMP control measures be submitted to U.S. EPA and serve as the 2010 and 2020 PM10 emission budgets. The 2010 and 2020 PM10 emission inventories are provided in Appendix V of the 1997 AQMP. The emission inventories are also provided in Attachment B herein and would serve as the PM10 emission budgets for 2010 and 2020.
As part of the requirements for submittal of emission budgets for transportation conformity use, an air quality analysis must be provided for the years that the budgets will serve, demonstrating attainment or maintenance of the applicable federal air quality standard [40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iv)]. A PM10 air quality analysis for 2010 is provided in the 1997 AQMP (Appendix V, pp. V-2-64 through V-2-66). For completeness, the discussion on the 2010 PM10 air quality analysis is also provided in Attachment C herein.
Although the emission inventory for 2020 is provided in the 1997 AQMP (Appendix III and Appendix V), the 1997 AQMP does not provide an air quality analysis for PM10. AQMD staff has since performed a PM10 air quality analysis for 2020 using the 2020 emission inventory and following the modeling methodologies described in Appendix V of the 1997 AQMP. The results of the air quality analysis are shown in Attachment D. The PM10 air quality analysis indicates that the South Coast Air Basin will maintain the federal PM10 air quality standard despite growth in primary PM10 emissions. The projected annual average maximum PM10 concentration of 47.9 µg/m3 is slightly lower than the annual average maximum PM10 concentration of 48.1 µg/m3 projected for 2006.
As part of the submittal of the PM10 emission inventory, a list of the emission reductions associated with each control measure is provided. Attachment E shows the emission reductions for each of the 1997 AQMP control measures for 2010 and 2020, respectively.
Policy Issues
If SCAG cannot make a positive transportation conformity determination in the 1998 RTP, the South Coast Air Basin will be subject to a cutoff of federal highway funding. Several transportation projects will be in jeopardy of losing their funding.
AQMP & Legal Mandates
Submittal of emission budgets for each milestone year to the attainment year by the AQMD is a requirement under the federal Clean Air Act for conformity purposes. However, emission budgets after the attainment year are not required to be submitted unless specific circumstances warrant such submittals.
CEQA & Socioeconomic Analysis
Pursuant to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), the District Governing Board certified a final Environmental Impact Report (FEIR) for the 1997 AQMP on November 15, 1996. Since the 2010 and 2020 PM10 air quality analyses show a decrease in PM10 concentration levels from 2006 and continued maintenance of federal PM10 standards even though PM10 emissions are projected to increase from 2006 to 2020, the proposed action to submit the 2010 and 2020 emission inventories does not constitute substantial new information, does not create any new significant impacts or make any existing impacts substantially worse, and does not require additional mitigation measures. Therefore, no additional CEQA analysis is required pursuant to state CEQA Guidelines Section 15162 nor does it require recirculation of the previously prepared FEIR pursuant to State CEQA Guidelines Section 15088.5.
In addition, the District Governing Board approved the Socioeconomic Impact Assessment for the 1997 AQMP on November 15, 1996. The proposed action would continue implementation of the 1997 AQMP control measures analyzed in the Socioeconomic Impact Assessment for the 1997 AQMP.
Resource Impacts
Minor administrative costs will be incurred by the AQMD to process and forward the emission inventories to the ARB and U.S. EPA.
A. Resolution and its accompanying Attachment I
B. 2010 and 2020 PM10 Emission Budgets
C. 2010 PM10 Air Quality Analysis from the 1997 AQMP
D. 2020 PM10 Air Quality Analysis
E. Emission Reductions by Control Measure for 2010 and 2020
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