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PROPOSAL:

Implementation of the Inland Empire Committee Recommendations #2 and #3

SYNOPSIS:

This report highlights the October 1998 activities to implement two of the seven recommendations from the Board's Ad Hoc Inland Empire Committee. Staff performed an air quality analysis of the high ozone concentrations observed in the Central San Bernardino Mountains during the summer of 1998. In addition, staff has made an initial estimate of the cost to implement a pager notification pilot program. Staff is requesting approval from the Board to move for-ward with the pager system pilot program.

COMMITTEE:

Not Applicable

RECOMMENDED ACTION:

1. Receive and file status report on the Ad Hoc Inland Empire Committee Recom-mendations #2 and #3.
2. Direct staff to proceed with the air quality pager alert service pilot program at a cost not to exceed $7,250. Expenditures for the pilot program would be approved by the Acting Executive Officer.

Barry R. Wallerstein, D.Env.
Acting Executive Officer

Background An Ad Hoc Inland Empire Committee was formed to develop suggestions to enhance AQMD's ongoing activities and programs, especially as relates to the Inland Empire. These concerns include: geographic effects of emissions, such as transport impacts and improved understanding of peak ozone formation; enhanced outreach and public educa-tion; and innovative control strategies. The Committee prepared a set of recommenda-tions to help address inland community concerns and needs. While originating from the Inland Empire, these suggested actions focus on actions that can provide overall benefits to the entire region. The Ad Hoc Inland Empire Committee submitted for the full Board's consideration a set of seven recommendations ranging from scientific analyses to expanded technological capabilities and public education. The Governing Board ap-proved the Committee's recommendations at its September 1998 meeting.

Status Report A status report on Recommendations #2 (Technical Analysis of High Ozone Concen-trations in the Central San Bernardino Mountains) and #3 (Air Quality Pager Alert Service) is provided reflecting activities over the last two months. Activities are also occurring relative to the other initiatives and status reports will occur in subsequent Board letters.

Recommendation #2 - Technical Analysis of High Ozone Concentrations in the Central San Bernardino Mountains During September and October 1998, staff conducted a series of air quality modeling analyses to examine the potential reasons for the high ozone concentrations observed in the central San Bernardino Mountains during the summer of 1998. There have been several hypotheses as to the cause of the higher ozone concentrations. One is that ozone concentrations have been much more severe in 1998 compared to prior years due to the higher than average temperatures during July and August. Another hypothesis is that with the reduced VOC emissions over the last ten years and the lower VOC reactivity through reformulations in solvents and coatings and reformulated gasoline, the forma-tion of ozone has been delayed such that peak ozone concentrations occur later in the day and further downwind. As ozone is formed further downwind, the ozone concen-tration levels in the downwind areas tend to stay high overnight since there are a smaller number of manmade sources of nitrogen oxides (nitric oxide scavenges ozone). During daylight hours, the formation of ozone from nitrogen oxides and VOC is more dominant than the nitric oxide scavenging. However, when the daytime photochemical reactions shut down at night, the predominant reaction is nitric oxide scavenging of ozone.

A third hypothesis is that due to the unusually wet winter, there are greater amounts of biogenic emissions contributing to the higher ozone formation in the mountain areas. All of the above hypotheses contribute to some extent to the higher ozone concentra-tions observed during the summer of 1998.

Staff has outlined a series of air modeling and meteorological analyses to investigate the above hypotheses. For the air quality modeling analysis, staff used the June 1987 Southern California Air Quality Study (SCAQS) ozone meteorological episode to con-duct the technical analysis. The 1987 SCAQS episode is one of the four episodes used for the ozone attainment demonstration in the 1997 AQMP. All of the 1987 ozone epi-sodes showed that peak ozone occurred in the Basin, while the mountain areas showed somewhat lower ozone levels. The June 1987 episode showed high ozone concentra-tions in the San Bernardino Mountains similar to the peak ozone concentrations ob-served in the Basin, indicative of pollution transport from the urbanized areas of the Ba-sin to the mountains. The highest ozone concentration observed in the mountains during this episode was about 20 pphm compared to a peak value of 25 pphm observed in the Basin. The peak Basin value was observed at several locations in eastern Los Angeles and western San Bernardino counties.

Using the latest baseline emission inventories, staff estimated the emission levels for 1998. Present day emissions, along with revised VOC speciation profiles recently re-leased by ARB reflecting the reactivity of reformulated gasolines, are used for the analysis. The estimated 1998 VOC emissions dropped by 44 percent from 1987 levels whereas nitrogen oxide emissions dropped by 27 percent over the same time period. Air quality modeling of the June 1987 episode with 1998 emissions indicates that ozone levels decreased throughout the region compared to 1987. In addition, the air quality modeling analysis indicates that ozone concentrations have dropped more dramatically in the Basin proper compared to the mountain areas and the mountain areas generally have higher ozone levels. This modeling analysis supports the hypothesis that due to the lower VOC emissions along with lower reactivity that peak ozone concentrations are occurring further downwind and that the peak ozone has a tendency to stay high in the downwind areas where nitric oxide emissions are low. Staff conducted another model-ing run assuming that nitric oxide emissions are much higher in the mountain areas to determine if the ozone levels would remain high in the downwind areas. The results of this model run confirm that if higher nitrogen oxide emission levels were occurring in the mountains, the ozone concentration levels would be lowered.

Staff also performed a sensitivity analysis of doubling the biogenic emissions to deter-mine the impacts of biogenic emissions on ozone formation. Ozone concentrations in the mountain areas increased by less than 1 pphm. Increasing biogenic emissions ap-pears to have a small effect on peak ozone concentrations. However, since the determi-nation of a Stage I episode is a "bright line" test, any small contribution to ozone can lead to a Stage I determination if the ozone level is borderline. Staff is still in the proc-ess of conducting other modeling sensitivity analyses during the upcoming months and will report to the full Board on those findings.

In addition, during the upcoming months, staff will be analyzing the meteorological conditions that occurred during the summer of 1998 compared to previous years to de-termine what impacts meteorology had on the high ozone concentrations in the San Bernardino Mountains.

Recommendation #3 - Air Quality Pager Alert Service During the last two months, thirteen pager and cellular phone service vendors were contacted, of which nine responded. The nine respondents include Skytel Corporation, Prime Matrix Wireless, PageNet, Pacific Bell Mobile Services, Metrocall Paging, Metro Mobile Communications, LA Cellular, BearCom, and AirTouch Paging.

Staff evaluated current technology to identify the most cost-effective way to implement a pilot air quality alert service (AQAS). Preliminary information gathered from vendors indicates that the pager alert service could function similar to a sports or news ticker service. Episode alerts would be sent electronically to the various pager and cellular service providers, so that they, in turn, can re-send a pager alert to the pilot-test group. Existing in-house equipment should be sufficient to establish communications with ven-dors for the pilot program. Estimated costs for the pilot program are $7,250 for pager rental and newspaper advertising to help identify potential participants.

In the upcoming months, staff will implement a three-month pilot program of the AQAS that would enable the general public to receive air quality alerts and forecasts via their pagers and cellular phones. A minimum of 50 pagers will be assigned to a pilot-test group. The pilot program will have three main phases: Phase I: Contact major pager and cellular service providers to verify their commit-ment to participate in the pilot program. Staff has received verbal commit-ments from Skytel, Pacific Bell Mobile Services and PageNet of their intent to participate in the pilot program. Discussions are continuing with the other vendors that responded to the survey, in particular Metrocall Paging, LA Cellular, and AirTouch Paging. Phase II: Inform the public and identify potential participants for the pilot-test pro-gram. It is estimated that the pilot program will run from January to March of 1999. Between now and then, potential participants will be identified through a media outreach program, including news releases and local news-paper advertisements, that describes the new AQAS pilot program and in-vites the public to contact the AQMD if they are interested. The AQMD's Public Affairs division will direct the media outreach program. Staff rec-ommends that a minimum of 50 pagers or cellular phones be assigned to a pilot-test group for a minimum evaluation of three months. Phase III: Report back to the Board at its April 1999 meeting with results of the pilot program and a proposal, as appropriate, for implementation of a Districtwide AQAS.

Fiscal Impacts Funds for the pager system pilot program in an amount not to exceed $7,250 are avail-able in the FY 1998-99 Budget of Information Management ($2,250) and the Public Advisor ($5,000).

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