BOARD MEETING DATE: August 1, 2003
AGENDA NO. 35

Adopt 2003 Revision to Air Quality Management Plan and Certify Final Environmental Impact Report

SYNOPSIS:

On February 25, 2003, staff released the draft 2003 AQMP to satisfy both federal and state Clean Air Act requirements, address the attainment demonstration requirements of the federal Clean Air Act for one-hour ozone, PM10, and carbon monoxide, and establish transportation emission budgets based on the latest approved motor vehicle emissions model and planning assumptions. The Draft Environmental Impact Report (EIR) for the 2003 AQMP was also released for public review on April 8, 2003. Proposed modifications to the draft 2003 AQMP were released on June 6, 2003 to incorporate revisions to the emissions inventory, control strategy, modeling, and transportation budgets. Written comments received were considered in preparing the draft final 2003 AQMP. A Final EIR incorporating comments received has also been prepared for the Board’s consideration.

COMMITTEE:

Mobile Source and Stationary Source, June 27 and July 25, 2003, Reviewed

RECOMMENDED ACTION:

1. Authorize the Executive Officer to make appropriate changes to the 2003 AQMP and its appendices (if necessary) to reflect policies adopted at the Public Hearing;
    
2. Certify the Final Environmental Impact Report for the 2003 Air Quality Management Plan, in accordance with the attached Resolution (Attachment A);
    
3. Adopt the 2003 Air Quality Management Plan in accordance with the attached Resolution (Attachment A); and
    
4. Direct the Executive Officer to forward the adopted 2003 Air Quality Management Plan to the California Air Resources for its approval and subsequent submittal to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Barry R. Wallerstein, D.Env.
Executive Officer

Background

Under the federal Clean Air Act, areas designated as extreme non-attainment for the federal 1-hour ozone standard are required to submit implementation plans to demonstrate attainment by 2010. Similarly, serious non-attainment areas with respect to the federal PM10 standards are required to achieve these standards by 2006. The 2003 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP or Plan) satisfies these requirements and sets forth a comprehensive program that will lead the South Coast Air Basin (Basin) and those portions of the Salton Sea Air Basin under AQMD jurisdiction into compliance with all federal and state air quality planning requirements. The Plan is also designed to satisfy the California Clean Air Act triennial update requirement and fulfill the AQMD commitment to update transportation conformity budgets based on the latest planning assumptions. (The 2003 PM10 Coachella Valley State Implementation Plan is prepared separately to incorporate the latest emissions inventory and planning assumptions.)

Timely adoption of the 2003 AQMP is essential for establishing transportation conformity budgets in order to avoid a potential conformity lapse in the region, which could result in the loss of billions of dollars in federal funding for transportation projects. The Plan will be submitted to U.S. EPA as a State Implementation Plan (SIP) revision once it is approved by the AQMD Governing Board and the California Air Resources Board (CARB).

Public Process

The draft 2003 AQMP builds upon improvements accomplished from the previous plans and incorporates all feasible control measures identified thus far. This Plan revision was developed based on input and suggestions from internal and external brainstorming sessions as well as input from the AQMP Advisory Group and the AQMP Scientific, Technical, and Modeling Peer Review Advisory Group during the last two years. Development of the draft 2003 AQMP was also coordinated with CARB and SCAG staff.

In order to solicit public comments and input into the draft 2003 AQMP and highlight the major issues early in the process, a preview document on the proposed 2003 AQMP was released in January 2003 followed by the release of the draft 2003 AQMP in February 2003. Subsequent to the release of the draft Plan, six public workshops were held throughout the four counties in March 2003 which were attended by over 250 people. A status report on the draft 2003 AQMP highlighting the key findings and the key policy issues as well as a summary of public comments was also presented to AQMD Governing Board in April 2003 and public testimonies were received. Based on the comments received, the Proposed Modifications to the Draft 2003 AQMP as well as the Response to Comments on the draft 2003 AQMP were released in June 2003. An Addendum to the Proposed Modifications to the Draft 2003 AQMP and Additional Comments and Responses is also prepared (Attachment B) to reflect latest revisions (described later in this Board Letter) and responses to additional comments received. In addition, regional Public Hearings on the 2003 AQMP were held in four counties in July 2003 and public testimonies were received.

Proposal

The draft 2003 AQMP, released on February 25, 2003, incorporates the most recent planning assumptions and the best available information such as revised stationary point and area source emissions inventories as well as on-road and off-road mobile source emissions inventories based on CARB’s EMFAC2002 and Off-Road Models, respectively; the use of new 1997 meteorological episodes for ozone and expanded air quality modeling analysis; and latest demographic growth forecasts based on the 2001 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) developed by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). The Plan also includes an updated control strategy for demonstrating attainment with the federal air quality standards for 1-hour ozone and PM10; replaces the 1997 attainment demonstration for the federal carbon monoxide (CO) standard; and provides a basis for a CO maintenance plan.

Some of the key findings and highlights of the draft 2003 AQMP include:

1) Current Air Quality - Although the long-term trend of air quality in the Basin has improved significantly and is expected to continue to improve because of existing air quality regulations, without additional controls the federal PM10 and ozone standards will not be achieved by 2006 and 2010, respectively;

2) Emissions Inventory - The estimated emissions inventory has increased primarily for mobile sources due to the use of new inventory models as well as updated activity and emission factor data;

3) Modeling - After evaluating a number of available air quality models and chemistry modules, the Urban Airshed Model (UAM) with the Carbon Bond IV (CB-IV) was selected as the primary modeling tool (due to its ability to recreate the peak ozone concentrations observed during the primary ozone episode) along with the new 1997 meteorological episodes ;

4) Attainment Demonstration - Based on the modeling analysis, the 2010 carrying capacities were determined to be 310 tons per day of VOC and 530 tons per day of NOx emissions requiring significant reductions (318 tons/day of VOC and 212 tons/day of NOx) to be achieved by 2010 for ozone attainment demonstration;

5) Control Strategy - The overall control strategy proposed in the Plan will provide for attainment of the PM10 and ozone standards by 2006 and 2010, respectively; however, after implementation of short-term and defined control measures by the AQMD, CARB, and SCAG, significant additional reductions would still need to be achieved under the long-term strategy based on future technology advancements or greater implementation of innovative strategies referred to as "black box" reductions (i.e., 226 tons/day of VOC and 161 tons/day of NOx);

6) Assignment of Black Box Reductions - Two emission reduction scenarios were proposed in the draft Plan (discussed under Key Policy Issues) for distribution of long-term emission reduction requirements among agencies (proposed by AQMD staff and CARB staff);

7) Federal Responsibility - Two attainment demonstration options for the 1-hour ozone standard were presented in the draft Plan (discussed under Key Policy Issues), one relying on emission reductions from federal sources and the other excluding these reductions because of concerns over the approvability of the Plan containing a federal assignment; and

8) New National Ambient Air Quality Standards - The control strategy in the 2003 AQMP will make expeditious progress toward attainment of the upcoming new PM2.5 and the 8-hour ozone standards in 2014 and 2021 (estimated schedule), respectively.

Public Comments

Some of the main comments on the draft 2003 AQMP are summarized below:

The environmental organizations expressed concerns primarily over the size of the black box and the excessive reliance on undefined future technologies and strategies, lack of commitment by the federal government to achieve a fair share of reductions, inadequate commitments by the AQMD, CARB, and SCAG to achieve short-term and long-term reductions, and insufficient specificity of control measures. However, strong support was expressed for adoption of Scenario 1 for allocation of black box reductions to agencies (recommended by AQMD staff) to avoid delaying the adoption and implementation of control measures. In addition, a number of suggested control strategies were provided for inclusion into the AQMP. In response to these comments, AQMD staff has provided additional details in the Plan including specific mechanisms for achieving its long-term reduction target and also included the suggested control strategies in the 2003 AQMP for further evaluation and development.

The industry representatives also provided a number of comments on the proposed control measures with respect to the emissions inventory and reduction targets, affected categories, proposed control methods, AQMD legal authority (specifically relative to AQMD mobile source control measures), control cost and economic impacts (e.g., ports and airports), and lack of specificity of several control measures. In addition, comments were made that U.S. EPA and CARB should assume a greater responsibility for achieving the necessary reductions for sources under their jurisdiction (i.e., mobile sources and consumer products). Suggestions were also made to consider other strategies such as demand-side programs (e.g., higher fees for higher-emitting products or vehicles) and compliance flexibility programs for inclusion into the 2003 AQMP. In response to these comments, revisions were made in a number of control measures, where appropriate. For example, general criteria were added to AQMD fee measures for establishing fee rates and selection of air quality projects, and other revisions were made to provide additional details and clarifications. In addition, some of the suggested control concepts were included in the 2003 AQMP for future consideration.

A significant number of comments (oral and written) were received on CARB's proposed control measure which required new forklift purchases and rentals to be electric, citing serious economic hardships on the propane industry and the users of propane forklifts as well as concerns over feasibility of electric forklifts. In response to these comments, CARB has revised the control measure to require zero-emission forklifts in applications where these units have been deemed to be suitable alternatives to internal combustion engine forklifts.

The specific responses to 50 written comment letters as well as oral comments received at the workshops are addressed in the document, "Response to Comments on the Draft 2003 Air Quality Management Plan," dated June 2003. Additional comments received after the release of the Proposed Modifications to the Draft 2003 AQMP and the Response to Comments on the Draft 2003 AQMP documents are also addressed in Attachment B of this Board letter.

Proposed Modifications to the Draft 2003 AQMP

Based on the comments received and additional inter-agency consultations, several modifications were made to the draft 2003 AQMP. A summary of the key modifications is provided here:

1) Additional improvements and refinements were made to the emissions inventory resulting in an overall increase of about 30 tons/day of VOC and 24 tons/day of NOx in 2010 primarily due to the use of updated activity data for lawn and garden equipment and locomotives as well as SCAG's revised baseline demographic data and other technical corrections;

2) The main revisions to the overall control strategy included the following: a) CARB reduced its commitment relative to its proposed short-term (defined) control measures from the high-end of the reduction range to mid-point (i.e., from 71 to 49 tons per day of VOC and from 46 to 37 tons/day of NOx reductions), removed its previously-committed Tier I long-term reduction commitment of 47 tons per day of VOC in favor of a larger black box for which strategies and commitments will be identified by 2007 through a public process (it should be noted that AQMD staff has retained this commitment for CARB under AQMD recommended Scenario 1, discussed later), and moved the specific federal measures to long-term strategies; b) SCAG also revised its Regional Transportation Strategy and Control Measures by updating the emission reductions projections, refining the transportation control measure project identification and implementation, and providing Reasonably Available Control Measures analysis; c) AQMD included additional details and mechanisms for achieving its long-term reduction commitment, introduced a new Transportation Conformity Budget Backstop control measure (to achieve additional PM10 reductions from transportation-related categories), made specific revisions and improvements to several of its short-term control measures, and incorporated long-term strategies suggested by the AQMP Advisory Group Technical Subcommittee and the environmental communities for further evaluation and development;

3) The two emission reduction scenarios for distributing the long-term emission reductions have been updated to reflect CARB's revised commitments as well as the revised emissions inventory. Accordingly, because of these revisions, the size of the black box has increased to 265 tons per day of VOC and 181 tons per day of NOx reductions, representing about 79% and 81% of the overall VOC and NOx reductions needed for attainment. The two attainment demonstration options for the 1-hour ozone standard (i.e., with and without reductions from federal sources) are maintained using the same carrying capacities presented in the draft Plan (refer to the Key Policy Issues section);

4) Transportation conformity budgets were established for milestone and attainment years reflecting the existing regulations, short-term measures and transportation-related control measures. In addition, in order to compensate for the anticipated increase in PM10 emissions from transportation categories (i.e., motor vehicles, re-entrained paved and unpaved road dust, and road construction) for the years beyond the attainment year, a trading mechanism was proposed for conformity budget purposes to trade excess primary PM10 and PM10 precursor reductions from all sources for the primary PM10 increase associated with transportation-related categories. Also, as mentioned earlier, a new backstop control measure, "Transportation Conformity Budget Backstop Control Measure," is included in the Plan to achieve additional PM10 reductions by 2020 and 2030, if necessary, to maintain the federal PM10 standards; and

5) In response to CARB's comments, refinements were made to the visibility analysis which resulted in lesser overall visibility improvements.

Addendum to the Proposed Modifications to the Draft 2003 AQMP and Additional Comments and Responses

The Addendum to the Proposed Modifications to the Draft 2003 AQMP and Additional Comments and Responses represents additional revisions to the Plan as well as responses to comments received after the release of the proposed modifications to the draft Plan and is provided as Attachment B to this Board letter. The major revisions include: 1) The Transportation Conformity Budgets section relative to the PM10 conformity determination for years after the attainment year (i.e., after 2006) was refined following inter-agency discussions. Specifically, a primary approach is proposed based on the implementation of the Transportation Conformity Budget Backstop control measure. In the future, a trading mechanism which would rely on excess primary PM10 and PM10 precursor emission reductions could be developed through SIP revisions; 2) Additional clarifications were provided in several AQMD control measures; 3) Documentation of base-year UAM model performance statistical analyses and graphical analyses were provided in support of the modeling analysis presented in the draft final AQMP; 4) Other minor revisions to the emissions inventory, rate-of-progress calculations, visibility analysis and typographical corrections were also made throughout the AQMP chapters and appendices.

The final 2003 AQMP submitted for the Governing Board’s consideration consists of the documents entitled:

• Draft 2003 Air Quality Management Plan (February 2003) including the following appendices:

• Appendix I - Health Effects (February 2003)
• Appendix II - Current Air Quality (February 2003)
• Appendix III - Base and Future Year Emission Inventories (February 2003)
• Appendix IV-A - District’s Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures (February 2003)
• Appendix IV-B - State and Federal Element of the South Coast State Implementation Plan (February 2003)
• Appendix IV-C - Transportation Control Measures (February 2003)
• Appendix V - Modeling and Attainment Demonstration (April 2003)

• Proposed Modifications to the Draft 2003 Air Quality Management Plan and Appendices II, III, IV-A, and V (June 2003)
   
• Proposed Modifications to the Draft 2003 Air Quality Management Plan Appendix IV-B – Proposed 2003 State and Federal Strategy for the California State Implementation Plan by CARB (June 2003)
   
• Proposed Modifications to the Draft 2003 Air Quality Management Plan Appendix IV-C – Regional Transportation Strategy and Control Measures by SCAG (June 2003)
   
• Response to Comments on the Draft 2003 Air Quality Management Plan (June 2003)
   
• Addendum to the Proposed Modifications to the Draft 2003 AQMP and Additional Comments and Responses (Attachment B)
   
• Final Environmental Impact Report for the 2003 Air Quality Management Plan (Attachment C)
   
• Draft Final Socioeconomic Report for the 2003 Air Quality Management Plan (Attachment D)

Due to the bulk of the above materials, they have been provided to the Governing Board members only. The last three documents listed above are also provided as attachments to this Board letter. All of the above documents have been made available to the public on AQMD Website at http://www.aqmd.gov/aqmp/03aqmp.htm and have also been made available through the AQMD Public Information Center.

Key Policy Issues

There are four key policy issues related to the adoption of the 2003 AQMP for Board consideration which are briefly presented here:

1) Assignment of Black Box Reductions – The 2003 AQMP includes two scenarios for distributing the long-term "black box" emission reductions among responsible agencies, depicted in Tables 1 and 2 below. These reductions are required for attainment demonstration of the 1-hour ozone standard. Under Scenario 1, recommended by AQMD staff, emission reductions are distributed based on the 1997/99 SIP commitments by agencies as well as their extent of contribution to the remaining emissions in 2010. Although the AQMD has already met and exceeded its 1997/99 SIP target by about 40 tons per day of VOC emissions, under this scenario, AQMD is committing to achieve an additional 31 tons per day of VOC reductions beyond its short-term commitment from sources under its jurisdiction. The remainder of emission reductions is assigned to CARB and U.S. EPA since these agencies not only have not fully met their prior SIP commitments, but also they are responsible for about 80% of ozone precursors emissions in the Basin.

Under Scenario 2, recommended by CARB’s staff, the responsibility for achieving the black box reductions will not be assigned to each agency at this time but will be determined later. CARB staff proposes a single black box and a public process to identify feasible measures and the appropriate agency for adoption and implementation. Under this scenario, CARB would assume responsibility for assuring that measures are identified by 2007 to achieve the remaining emission reductions needed for attainment. This commitment is made with the expectation that the U.S. EPA and the AQMD will identify and adopt the necessary long-term measures.

AQMD staff recommends the Board’s approval of Scenario 1 since staff believes that this scenario represents a more equitable distribution of emission reduction requirements and assigns specific reduction commitments to each agency for achieving the needed reductions. Given the significant amount of emission reductions needed, primarily from mobile sources but also from other sources, Scenario 1 offers a more realistic approach allowing agencies adequate time for identifying, planning and implementing the necessary control strategies.

Table 1 - Scenario 1 (Recommended by AQMD Staff)
Emission Reductions from Short-Term and Long-Term Measures1
(2010, tons per day)
 

Table 2 - Scenario 2 (Recommended by CARB Staff)
Emission Reductions from Short-Term and Long-Term Measures1
(2010, tons per day)

1 In addition to District, CARB, and U.S. EPA measures, the 2003 AQMP includes reductions from SCAG's 2001 RTP (i.e., 15.7 tons/day of VOC and 7.8 tons/day NOx) of which emissions reductions from transportation control measures are 5 tons per day of VOC and 1 ton per day of NOx emissions.
 

2) Size of Black Box Reductions - As mentioned earlier, the black box reductions refer to the additional reductions needed for attainment demonstration after implementation of short-term (defined) measures proposed by the AQMD, CARB, and SCAG. These reductions are proposed to be achieved under the long-term strategy of the Plan based on future technology advancements or greater implementation of innovative strategies. Of the overall 336 tons per day of VOC reductions and 223 tons per day of NOx reductions, the black box reductions (i.e., 265 tons per day of VOC and 181 tons per day of NOx reductions in 2010) represent approximately 79% and 81% of the required VOC and NOx reductions, respectively. As mentioned in the previous section, the AQMD is committing to achieve 31 tons per day of the black box reductions even though the AQMD has already exceeded its 1997/99 SIP reduction commitments. In contrast, CARB and U.S. EPA have not met their commitments and have jurisdiction over 80% of ozone precursor emissions in the Basin.

In light of the fact that mobile source reductions require long lead time to achieve, minimizing the reductions in the black box is necessary to assure timely development, adoption, and implementation of the required reductions. Therefore, staff recommends that the Board adopt a resolution to request CARB to fully consider AQMD staff's recommended control strategies for sources under state and federal jurisdiction for inclusion into CARB's proposed short-term strategy with specific tonnage commitments in the SIP. These strategies are provided in Attachment 2A of the Resolution. It should be noted that the reduction figures represent the best estimate by the AQMD staff at this time and are subject to further refinement. Furthermore, staff recommends that the Board adopt a resolution to direct staff to submit a list of additional control concepts for CARB's consideration which could potentially further reduce the size of the black box. These suggested concepts were, for the most part, submitted to CARB in April 2003 and are presented as Attachment 2B of the Resolution. Finally, in order to achieve additional reductions from sources that are not under AQMD jurisdiction (including mobile sources and consumer products), staff also recommends that the Board adopt a resolution to request CARB to actively support AQMD efforts to obtain additional legal authority over these sources.

3) Attainment Demonstration Options (with and without emission reductions from federal sources) – During the development of the 2003 AQMP, the U.S. EPA staff asserted that the AQMD and the state cannot commit emission reduction obligations to the federal government in the Plan. Accordingly, inclusion of any federal assignment in the Plan would result in the Plan's disapproval by U.S. EPA. Consequently, the 2003 AQMP includes two attainment demonstration options for the federal 1-hour ozone standard relative to emissions associated with federal sources, presented in Table 3 below. Option 1 relies on the federal government to achieve 68 tons per day of NOx reductions and 18 tons per day of VOC reductions from federal sources (i.e., ships, aircraft, trains, certain off-road equipment, and 49-state vehicles) by 2010 based on the extent of emission contribution by these sources. Option 2 excludes reductions from federal sources resulting in a higher NOx carrying capacity in 2010. (Under this option, the 18 tons per day of VOC reductions from federal sources will be subsumed by CARB under the long-term commitment). Although both options show attainment of the federal ozone standard, Option 2 would significantly hamper the continued progress toward attaining the PM2.5 standard since NOx emissions are major contributors to the formation of PM2.5 emissions.

AQMD staff recommends that the Board submit both options for U.S. EPA’s consideration. In the event that the U.S. EPA does not approve Option 1 with its corresponding reductions from federal sources, Option 2 will serve as the attainment demonstration plan for the 1-hour ozone standard. However, without an adequate and fair share level of reductions from federal sources, the emission reduction burden would unfairly be shifted to stationary sources and mobile sources under AQMD and state jurisdictions. Therefore, staff believes that U.S. EPA should make every effort to develop stringent new standards as well as retrofit requirements for sources under federal jurisdiction and should do a fair share in achieving all feasible reductions, thereby helping the region comply with the federal requirements. Therefore, staff recommends that the Board adopt a resolution to urge the U.S. EPA to expeditiously evaluate and implement all feasible control strategies to achieve maximum reductions from sources under federal jurisdiction by 2010.

Table 3
Attainment Demonstration Options
and Corresponding Carrying Capacities
(2010, tons per day)
 

4) Transportation Conformity Budget and Growth Forecasts - The 2003 AQMP establishes transportation conformity budgets for milestone and attainment years. The transportation conformity budget methodology, recommended by CARB and accepted by U.S. EPA and SCAG, differs from previous AQMPs and reflects only the impact of adopted regulations, short-term measures, and transportation control measures but does not take into account the long-term reductions needed for attainment demonstration. The rationale for this approach is that it is unknown at this time if and how much of the black box reductions would come from the transportation budget-related source categories. Although staff recommends proceeding with the proposed methodology, there is remaining concern that it may cause unconstrained growth for the planning horizon beyond 2010. Therefore, staff recommends that the Board direct staff to continue working with the U.S. EPA, CARB, and SCAG to revise this methodology to ensure that potential adverse air quality impacts or interference with timely progress toward clean air resulting from transportation growth in the region is properly mitigated. In addition, staff recommends that the Board adopt a resolution to direct staff to actively participate in SCAG's development of demographic growth forecasts as part of SCAG's 2004 Regional Transportation Plan process and to retain the services of a contractor for an independent evaluation of SCAG staff's growth projections and spatial distribution, if necessary.

California Environmental Quality Act

Pursuant to California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines §15168, the AQMD has prepared a Program Environmental Impact Report (PEIR) for the 2003 Air Quality Management Plan. The Draft PEIR was released for a 45-day public review and comment period beginning on April 8, 2003, and ending on May 22, 2003. The Draft PEIR analyzed potential adverse impacts from implementing AQMP control measures in the following environmental areas: air quality; energy; hazards and hazardous materials; hydrology and water quality; and solid/hazardous waste. Significant adverse impacts were identified in the following environmental areas: air quality and hazards. Fifteen comment letters were received on the Draft PEIR. Responses to all comments received have been prepared and incorporated into the Final PEIR for the proposed project. Finally, since significant adverse environmental impacts and mitigation measures were identified for the proposed project, a Statement of Findings, a Statement of Overriding Considerations, and a Mitigation Monitoring Plan were prepared in accordance with the requirements of CEQA.

Socioeconomic Analysis

The socioeconomic analysis of the 2003 AQMP includes the cost, benefit, and other socioeconomic impacts of meeting the federal and state air quality standards. The analysis is presented at the sub-county level (19 regions within the four-county area). This is the first time such detailed geographic information is systematically presented as part of AQMP development and evaluation. The entire benefit of clean air and 30 percent of emission reductions with cost data is included for the secondary impact analysis since cost data is not available for the remaining 70% of emissions reductions that would come from long-term ("black box") measures.

Compliance with the federal PM10 and ozone standards and progress toward the state standards, including the state visibility standard, is projected to result in an average annual benefit of $6.6 billion. The $6.6 billion includes roughly $2.6 billion for averted illness and higher survival rates, $2 billion for congestion relief, $1.9 billion for visibility improvements, $63 million for reduced damage to materials, and $18 million for increased crop yields. Not all of the benefits associated with the implementation of the draft final Plan can be quantified. The $2.6 billion health benefit does not account for reduced emissions from pollutants other than PM10 and ozone. Neither have reductions in vehicle hours traveled for personal trips and damages to plants, livestock, and forests been quantified. The total benefit of the Plan is, therefore, expected to exceed $6.6 billion.

The projected annual implementation cost of the draft final Plan is $3.2 billion annually, on average. The cost estimate is divided into quantifiable and unquantifiable measures. The projected cost for quantifiable measures is approximately $1.6 billion. Transportation control measures alone contribute to 57 percent of the total quantifiable cost. The cost of unquantifiable measures is projected to be approximately $1.6 billion. The cost of unquantified measures was derived from emission reductions in 2010 and the average cost effectiveness of quantifiable measures. The cost of quantified measures represents only 30 percent of emission reductions intended for attainment. A sensitivity test rendered on the unquantified measures shows that the total cost of the Plan could range from a low of $2 billion to a high of $4.7 billion annually, on average. Additional efforts will be made to quantify the costs associated with all control measures before the next AQMP revision.

Attachments

1. Resolution
2. Addendum to the Proposed Modifications to the Draft 2003 AQMP and Additional Comments and Responses
3. Draft Final Environmental Impact Report for the 2003 Air Quality Management Plan
4. Draft Final Socioeconomic Report for the 2003 Air Quality Management Plan

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