BOARD MEETING DATE: February 2, 2007
AGENDA NO. 32

Mobile Source Committee

SYNOPSIS:

The Mobile Source Committee met Friday, January 26, 2007.                  Following is a summary of that meeting.

RECOMMENDED ACTION:

Receive and file the attached report.

Dr. S. Roy Wilson, Vice Chair
Mobile Source Committee

Attendance

The meeting started at 9:05 a.m.  Present were Committee Vice Chair Roy Wilson (via videoconference) and Committee Member Gary Ovitt.  Committee Member Jane Carney participated via conference call.  The following items were presented:

INFORMATION ITEMS:

2. CARB Proposed Regulation for In-Use Mobile Off-Road Equipment
   This item was taken out of order.  Staff provided a report on CARB’s proposed regulation for in-use off-road diesel equipment which is intended to reduce PM and NOx emissions from this source category.  The proposed rule would apply to off-road diesel vehicles greater than 25 hp such as construction and industrial equipment, oil drilling, and aircraft ground support equipment, currently representing about 16 % and 21% of mobile source NOx and PM2.5 emissions, respectively.  Although off-road diesel equipment are subject to progressively more stringent new engine standards, the full emissions benefits of these standards will not be realized in the near future due of the slow turn over rate and the long useful life of these diesel engines.  Therefore, because of the significant contribution of this source category and the need for earlier emission reductions for PM2.5 and ozone attainments, additional reductions are needed through accelerated turn over and retrofit of existing vehicles.

The proposed rule would establish NOx and PM fleet average requirements which would decline over time beginning in 2009.  As an alternative to meeting these fleet average requirements, the fleet operators could turn over 10% of their engines per year and retrofit 20% of their units with PM controls.  Operators are expected to comply with this regulation by replacing and repowering with cleaner engines and/or retrofitting with existing PM control technologies.  The proposed rule also includes additional requirements for idling, reporting, labeling, and recordkeeping.  The emission benefits associated with the proposed rule are estimated to 16% and 54% in 2014 and 23% and 68% in 2020 for NOx and PM, respectively.  The statewide cost of regulation ranges from $2 to $3 billion over 12 years.

Based on District staff’s analysis, additional NOx reductions beyond those currently considered under CARB’s proposed regulation are technically feasible and cost-effective.  A regional rule could be developed for the Basin which would establish more stringent NOx fleet average requirements.  For the PM2.5 attainment in 2014, the District’s proposal will provide the equivalent reduction of replacing Tier 0 (uncontrolled) and Tier 1 equipment with Tier 3 or better.  Additional reductions in 2020 for ozone attainment will also be based on a stricter NOx fleet average equivalent of replacing Tier 2 with Tier 4 or better and retrofitting Tier 3 equipment with NOx controls.  The reductions associated with the District’s proposal are estimated to be about 15 and 25 tons per day of NOx emissions in 2014 and 2020, respectively.  There is currently one NOx retrofit technology available using SCR system verified for off-road applications and staff believes that additional NOx retrofit technologies will be widely available within the next several years providing an alternative means of compliance at lower costs.  A technology assessment provision could also be incorporated into the regulation to further evaluate the availability and feasibility of these retrofit systems.  Furthermore financial incentives could be considered for expediting the verification process and for earlier implementation of controls.  District staff’s proposal will be incorporated into the final draft 2007 AQMP.

1. Status Report on 2007 AQMP
   As part of the Update on the 2007 AQMP, staff compared the emissions inventory between the draft and draft final plans.  There was a significant decrease in VOC emissions due to the exclusion of 75% of pending vehicles, while the overall NOx emissions changed slightly.  Staff continued to present a series of sensitivity analyses that explored the impacts of varying motor vehicle miles traveled (VMT) on the PM2.5 and ozone carrying capacities.  The base case for VMT calculations and emissions estimates are generated from EMFAC2007, SCAG also produces estimates of VMT and the EMFAC2007 and SCAG projections are required to be equivalent in 2002.  The projections differ in 2005 where the EMFAC profile exhibited an increase.  The two estimates come together after 2005 however the “blip” in the trend has be a subject of concern and discussion.  Two sets of modeling sensitivity simulations were conducted to assess if the standards for PM2.5 and ozone could be met varying the VMT profiles.

Using the SCAG 2005 VMT profile, an additional reduction of 10 TPD of NOx would be required to meet the PM2.5 standard and no additional emissions reductions beyond the base case would be needed for the ozone analysis.  If the SCAG growth rate was anchored by the higher VMT noted in the EMFAC2007 2005 profile,   more than 49 TPD of NOx, 16 TPD of VOC and 2 TPD of PM2.5 of additional reductions beyond the base case would be required to attain the particulate standard.  In addition, an additional 11 TPD of VOC and 27 TPD of NOX would be needed to attain the ozone standard.

The staff recommendations were to use the SCAG VMT profile for modeling in that it provided a more conservative estimate of projected 2015 PM2.5 and 2023 ozone.  The base case EMFAC2007 would be used for inventory assessment.

Mr. Cassmassi provided an estimated set of carrying capacities for PM2.5 and ozone.  Attainment of the PM2.5 standard will result in a 2015 carrying capacity of 457 TPD VOC, 421 TPD NOx, 19 TPD SOx and 84 TPD of PM2.5.  The ozone carrying capacity using a “NOx heavy: approach in 2023 would be 420 TPD VOC, 125 TPD NOx, 19 TPD SOx and 84 TPD of PM2.5.

Staff presented the latest proposals relative to additional mobile source and consumer products measures for the Draft Final AQMP.  Staff indicated that CARB has provided more specific control measures and associated control factors to the AQMD staff.  Staff evaluated CARB’s control measures and removed those measures recommended in the October 2006 Draft AQMP release that are now covered by CARB’s proposals.  In addition, staff indicated that for those mobile source sectors where staff believes further emission reductions could be sought, staff will propose the additional measures in the Draft Final AQMP.  In addition, staff is proposing that all of the goods movement related measures be as aggressive and consistent with the San Pedro Bay Ports Clean Air Action Plan and CARB’s Goods Movement Emissions Reduction Plan such as locomotives, cargo handling equipment, and port trucks.

Staff presented 11 control measures, which covers on-road and off-road mobile sources.  Relative to on-road light- and medium-duty vehicles, staff proposes an increased penetration of plug-in hybrid vehicles that provide 30 to 40 miles of zero emissions, expanded AB923 high-emitter identification program, and greater deployment of advanced on board diagnostics (OBD-III).  For heavy-duty on-road vehicles, staff proposes achieving additional emissions reductions through accelerated fleet retrofits, repowers, and replacement.  Relative to off-road construction/industrial equipment, staff is recommending that CARB adopt more stringent NOx fleet average standards.  For pleasure craft engines, staff proposes accelerated turn-over through a combination of regulatory actions and incentive programs.  Staff also proposes that emissions from ground service equipment operating at airports be further reduced to meet the original MOU between the Air Transport Association and CARB.  Lastly, staff indicated that several measures proposed in the October 2006 Draft AQMP release are proposed to be placed as long-term measures to be implemented in the 2015 to 2023 timeframe.  This includes gasoline and diesel fuel reformulation, consumer products, and further emission reduction from aircraft engines.

3. Rule 2202 Activity Report
   Written report submitted.  No comments.
    
4. Monthly Report on Environmental Justice Initiatives – CEQA Document Commenting Update.
   Written report submitted.  No comments.
    
5. Report on Scientific, Technical & Modeling Peer Review Group
   Written report submitted.  No comments.
    
6. Other Business
   None.
    
7. Public Comment
   None.

The meeting adjourned at 9:55 a.m.

Attachment
Attendance Roster

SOUTH COAST AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
MOBILE SOURCE COMMITTEE
APRIL 28, 2006
ATTENDANCE ROSTER