BOARD MEETING DATE: April 4, 2008
AGENDA NO. 14

PROPOSAL:

Request to Modify 2007 AQMP Transportation Conformity Emission Budgets and Provide Alternative Approach in Response to U.S. EPA’s Request

SYNOPSIS:

In response to a request from U.S. EPA, staff is proposing to request CARB to remove the emission reductions associated with AQMD’s on-road control measures in the 2007 AQMP from the 2008 and 2009 transportation conformity emission budgets for the purpose of U.S. EPA’s initial conformity budget adequacy findings. This revision will not impact the 2007 SIP control measures and the AQMD’s SIP reduction commitment will not change. As an alternative to the preferred conformity budgets which reflect SIP emission reductions, an alternate path is also being provided for U.S. EPA’s consideration for conformity budget adequacy findings based on future baseline emissions.

COMMITTEE:

Not Applicable

RECOMMENDED ACTION:

Direct the Executive Officer to:

1. Request CARB to remove emission reductions associated with AQMD’s on-road control measures in 2007 AQMP from the 2008 and 2009 transportation conformity emission budgets for the purpose of U.S. EPA’s initial conformity budget adequacy findings, and recommend U.S. EPA’s approval of the preferred conformity budgets based on the 2007 SIP.
2. Request CARB to provide an alternative approach for transportation conformity emission budgets based on the 2007 SIP baseline emissions for all milestone years up to the attainment years, in the event that U.S. EPA can not approve or find adequate the budgets based on the 2007 SIP.
3. Continue to work with CARB, SCAG, FHWA, and U.S. EPA to resolve issues affecting budget adequacy and update transportation conformity budgets within 12 months to reflect such resolution.

Barry R. Wallerstein, D.Env.
Executive Officer

Background

At its July 13, 2007 meeting, the Board adopted the 2007 Final Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) transportation conformity emission budgets which were subsequently forwarded to CARB for approval and incorporation into the 2007 State Implementation Plan (SIP). On November 15, 2007, CARB approved the modified transportation conformity emission budgets to reflect the additional on-road mobile source emission reductions associated with the revised Statewide Strategy. The 2007 SIP for the South Coast Air Basin and the Coachella Valley, which include the modified transportation conformity emission budgets (for South Coast Air Basin) were subsequently forwarded by CARB to the U.S. EPA for approval on November 28, 2007. The conformity budgets for Coachella Valley were submitted to U.S. EPA following CARB’s approval of the Early Progress Plan for transport-impacted ozone nonattainment areas in February 2008.

Under the U.S. EPA transportation conformity rule (40 CFR parts 51 and 93), the on-road motor vehicle emission budgets established in SIPs serve as a “ceiling” for ensuring the conformity of transportation plans and programs with the SIP attainment demonstration. Exceedances of the budget indicate an inconsistency with the SIP and could jeopardize the flow of federal funds for transportation improvements in the region. The federal conformity findings on the current (2004) Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) expires on June 7, 2008. SCAG is currently in the process of developing the 2008 RTP which must conform to the transportation conformity emission budgets in the 2007 SIP. SCAG’s Regional Council will be considering approval of the 2008 RTP on May 8, 2008. The 2008 RTP would also include SCAG’s conformity determination which is contingent upon U.S. EPA’s adequacy findings of the 2007 SIP transportation conformity emission budgets.

As part of its conformity budget adequacy determination for the 2007 SIP, U.S. EPA staff has expressed concerns over the approvability of the 2007 SIP attainment demonstration and control measures. Specifically, U.S. EPA staff has indicated that the inclusion of a federal assignment (i.e., Federal Funding to Mitigate Locomotive Emissions) in the 2007 SIP will result in the disapproval of the PM2.5 attainment demonstration. U.S. EPA has also received public comments from environmental organizations requesting disapproval of the transportation conformity budgets on the basis of SIP approvability issues. In addition, U.S. EPA recently expressed concerns over the emissions reductions claimed for two 2007 AQMP on-road control measures for 2008 and 2009: Control Measures MOB-05 (AB923 Light-Duty Vehicle High Emitter Identification Program) and MOB-06 (AB923 Medium-Duty Vehicle High Emitter Identification Program). The purpose of these measures is to identify high-emitting vehicles through remote sensing and achieve further reductions through off-cycle repairs or vehicle retirement. MOB-05 is a voluntary control measure and is currently being implemented as a pilot program to determine the efficacy of the program. MOB-06 requires legislative authority since the measure applies to vehicles that are not currently subject to the Smog Check Program and would not be implemented until after 2010. However, emission reductions were inadvertently assigned in 2008 and 2009 which were reflected in the 2008 and 2009 emission budgets. The estimated reductions from MOB-05 are 0.16 ton per day of VOC and NOx each in 2008 and 0.31 and 0.15 tons per day of VOC and NOx reductions in 2009. For MOB-06, the estimated reductions are 0.1 ton per day of VOC and NOx each in 2008 and 0.16 and 0.17 tons per day of VOC and NOx reductions in 2009.

For the purpose of U.S. EPA initial conformity budget adequacy findings, U.S. EPA staff has requested that the emission reductions for AQMP control measures MOB-05 and MOB-06 be removed from the 2008 and 2009 transportation conformity budgets because of uncertainties associated with achieving these reductions. Due to other SIP approvability issues described earlier, U.S. EPA staff is also contemplating the use of baseline emissions as the operating emissions budgets for an interim approach and make a final determination on the emissions budgets (e.g., within one year) as part of its SIP approval process. It should be noted that baseline emissions are higher than the proposed emission budgets submitted by CARB.

Proposal

In response to U.S. EPA’s request, staff is recommending that a request be made to CARB to remove the emission reductions for the two 2007 AQMP control measures MOB-05 and MOB-06 from the 2008 and 2009 transportation conformity emission budgets. The proposed revision will not impact the attainment demonstration of the federal annual PM2.5 ambient air quality standard by 2015 or the federal 8-hour ambient air quality standard by 2024. Staff is not proposing to remove any of the 2007 SIP control measures and the AQMD’s SIP reduction commitment will not change since the commitment is to achieve the overall equivalent reductions through the application of alternative or substitute measures, as provided in the 2007 AQMP.

During the past several weeks, staff has been working with staffs from the U.S. EPA, CARB, and SCAG to address issues related to the 2007 SIP conformity budgets. Accordingly, staffs from CARB, SCAG, and AQMD have mutually developed the following approach for U.S. EPA’s consideration:

• Two sets of Conformity budgets would be approved and forwarded to U.S. EPA as proposed revisions to the SIP.  CARB’s report to their Board and transmittal letter would indicate that the two sets of budgets are being submitted because of U.S. EPA indications that the preferred budgets, which reflect the SIP revisions approved by the Board, may not be approvable to U.S. EPA.  CARB’s resolution would request that U.S. EPA not consider the alternate path budgets if it finds the preferred path budgets to be adequate.
   
  • SIP-based Budgets (Preferred Path):  The existing budgets (reflecting the approved AQMP/State Strategy) would be revised to 1) remove the impacts of 2008 and 2009 state and local measures that impact the on-road emissions, and 2) to reflect EMFAC 2007 calculations including external baseline adjustments.  Preferred Path Budgets are provided for the following milestone years:
    • South Coast: Annual PM2.5 Standard: 2009, 2012, 2014, 2023, 2030
    • South Coast: 8-Hour Ozone Standard: 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023
       
  • Baseline Budgets (Alternate Path):  Submit revised transportation budgets that reflect the 2007 SIP baseline emissions (reflecting rules adopted as of October 2006). These baseline emissions (VOC and NOx) have met the RPF requirements.  Alternative Path Budgets are provided for all milestone years up to the attainment year, as follows:
  • South Coast: Annual PM2.5 Standard: 2009, 2012 
  • South Coast: 8-Hour Ozone Standard: 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2020

Emission levels from 2012 and 2020 will be used for subsequent milestone years for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively. Should U.S. EPA only approve emission budgets for certain milestone years, emission budgets for all future milestone years will remain the same as the last milestone year approved.

U.S. EPA has raised the possibility that that any conformity budget which relies on new strategies adopted as part of the 2007 AQMP/State Strategy may be disapproved because of attainment demonstration concerns.  The alternative path would not include 2007 AQMP/State Strategy emissions reductions in excess of already adopted regulations in the baseline emissions, allowing U.S. EPA to approve those budgets and SCAG to prepare conformity analyses for its 2008 RTP. 

• SCAG will prepare two conformity determinations: one against the preferred path and the other against the alternate path, and will include an explanation of the difference between the two.
   
• AQMD, SCAG, CARB, FHWA, and U.S. EPA will work together to resolve AQMP issues affecting budget adequacy and submit an updated transportation conformity budgets within the next 12 months to reflect such resolution.

With respect to Coachella Valley conformity budgets, U.S. EPA is currently in the process of issuing a finding of budget adequacy for the budgets in the Early Progress Plan (EPP) approved by CARB in February 2008. Based on U.S. EPA’s anticipated approval of the 2012 Coachella Valley conformity budgets in the Early Progress Plan, no further action is needed on these budgets.

CEQA and Socioeconomic Impacts

CEQA and socioeconomic impacts for all control measures were already analyzed as part of the 2007 AQMP and there is no need for any additional analysis as a result of the proposed revision.

AQMP and Legal Mandates

The proposed revision to the transportation conformity emission budget will not impact the 2007 SIP attainment demonstration or the overall SIP reduction commitment.

Resource Impacts

The proposed revision to the transportation conformity emission budget will require no additional staff resources and funding.